It is almost time for the NBA playoffs, and this year it feels like there are five to seven teams that could win the championship. Will the Golden State Warriors repeat? Will Giannis Antetokounmpo capture his second title? Will Chris Paul finally win his first ring? Will the Larry O’Brien Trophy return to New York City? That last one was a joke, but the answer to all of those questions ultimately comes down to health. A major player gets injured every year, changing the entire playoff race. So, throughout this article, when I repeat myself about health, let me be.
Unlike the Western Conference, the Eastern Conference had all playoff seedings determined on April 7. The Milwaukee Bucks have dominated all season, with a record of 35-16 against teams in the East. Many fans regard Bucks forward Antetokounmpo as the best player in the league. Jrue Holiday is the best defensive guard in the NBA, center Brook Lopez is one of the league’s best rim protectors, and Antetokounmpo has the build and athleticism to guard any player.
Moreover, the defensive juggernaut Bucks secured the best record in the league mostly without forward Khris Middleton, who is slowly coming back from a right knee injury. In past years, critics noted their lack of depth, but those criticisms are no longer valid with the additions of forwards Jae Crowder and Joe Ingles. Crowder and Ingles both provide more shooting around Antetokounmpo, making it even harder for teams to put multiple defenders on him. The two of them are also good wing defenders, giving the Bucks even more defensive firepower. Again, the Bucks are the favorite because Antetokounmpo is the most dominant player right now. If they are healthy, the Bucks should win the NBA finals.
The Boston Celtics are good enough to win the title. They won 21 of their first 26 games but they lost their momentum throughout the season. The Celtics hit a low point in early March, blowing a 28-point lead against the Brooklyn Nets and shortly thereafter losing to the Houston Rockets ... a team that is actively trying to lose. Since that loss, though, the Celtics are 10-3 and are gaining much of that momentum back — possibly ramping up for a deep playoff run. On March 30, a day after inexplicably losing to the Washington Wizards by 20 points, the Celtics defeated the fully healthy Bucks by 41 points, proving they still have the ability to win the championship.
However, Boston’s inconsistencies threaten their championship aspirations. Their heavy reliance on threes brings a shooting variance that can be dangerous. Almost half of their field goal attempts are threes and when they don’t fall, they can’t win. The Celtics shot 33% from three in December 2022. Not coincidentally, they were only 8-6 that month. The Celtics are the only team in the league to rank top five in both offensive and defensive ratings, so the question I have for the Celtics is not whether or not they’re good enough but whether they can sustain that level of greatness for the next six weeks.
The arrow is pointing down for the Philadelphia 76ers. If you’d asked me in January or February, I would’ve said (albeit reluctantly) that the Sixers had a real chance at the title, but I no longer believe that. Center Joel Embiid has had a spectacular season, and with his 52-point performance against the Celtics on April 4, he is the front-runner for the NBA’s MVP award. Embiid’s running mate, guard James Harden, leads the league in assists. They both have had very good regular seasons, but Embiid has proven that he cannot stay healthy during the playoffs and Harden has become notorious for his consistently underwhelming postseason performances. Moreover, in games against more competitive teams, it is evident that Harden lacks the intensity needed to win in the playoffs. Not to mention he and Embiid have missed games due to injury recently. The Sixers peaked too early.
There are a couple of teams I don’t think will win but are worth mentioning. The Cleveland Cavaliers have a great young core and with Donovan Mitchell’s scoring ability, they are going to be a tough out against any opponent. Especially as center Evan Mobley begins to figure things out, Cleveland could be a serious threat in coming seasons.
Heading south, I am absolutely terrified of the Miami Heat. I know they are the seventh seed and have had, at best, a mediocre season, but they scare me. Jimmy Butler tends to turn into prime Michael Jordan during the playoffs, and Miami is really good at eliminating leads, especially at home. Your team will be up by eight with four minutes left, then Butler gets fouled, Tyler Herro hits a three in transition and all of a sudden, you’re down five with 80 seconds left. They probably won’t do much, but I really wouldn’t want to face them in a series.
Moving away from the East, the Western Conference is incredibly competitive. It seems like there are six or seven teams that could conceivably win the title: the Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns, Memphis Grizzlies, Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers. Depending on how the standings end up, we could see some great teams get knocked out in the first round.
The Nuggets have maintained the best record in the West all season, finishing 53-29. Their starting lineup — built around two-time MVP center Nikola Jokić — has been a strong point with one of the best net ratings in the league of 14.3. This season, their weakness has been the minutes with Jokić on the bench, but during the playoffs, starters always get a significant bump in playing time, so this will be less of an issue. I do have concerns, though. The Nuggets finished the season ranked 15th defensively, so I worry that they won’t be able to make stops down the stretch, especially in the more competitive play in the playoffs. The Nuggets have also struggled on the road; they finished with a road record of 19-22. To win in the playoffs, a team has to be able to win away from home. If they can stay healthy, the Nuggets are a real threat to win the West.
Are we overthinking this? The Suns have guard Devin Booker, forward Kevin Durant, center Deandre Ayton and guard Chris Paul, so they’re probably going to win the championship. There are criticisms about the Suns, though. They traded all of their wing depth for KD and have a very weak bench, but none of those factors seem to matter because the Suns haven’t lost with Durant. The main concern would be Paul choking in the playoffs, something he’s been known to do. However, because the Suns only need him to be the third or fourth option, it doesn’t worry me much.
The third seed, Kings, are really good, but I don’t think they’ll win. The Kings’ league-best offense revolves around a series of shooters and moving pieces, including former Atlanta Hawks’ guard Kevin Huerter. Who knew Huerter had more to his game than watching Trae Young chuck thirty-footers with 18 seconds left in the shot clock? Everyone? Everyone knew? Yeah, I thought so.
The Kings’ starting lineup looks like they’ve been playing together for years, even though this is their first season together. Their starting five has played more minutes together than any other lineup in the NBA by a wide margin, which may explain their chemistry. They will also have home-court advantage for the first round, so expect the Sacramento crowd to be loudas they’ve been waiting 16 years to see the Kings back in the playoffs. However, the Kings’ defense is absolutely abysmal, hence why I doubt they’ll make it far.
The Grizzlies really confuse me. The NBA investigated guard Ja Morant for possible possession of a gun on a team road trip, which, along with other lawsuits and incidents, resulted in an eight-game suspension. Their offense has been inconsistent and has struggled, partially due to center Steven Adams missing games because of injury. The Grizzlies recently announced that they expect Adams to miss another four weeks, so they will have to navigate the postseason without him. The Grizzlies have a very promising core — Morant, forward Jaren Jackson Jr. and guard Desmond Bane are all under 24 — but I’m not sure it's their time just yet.
I keep trying to rule the Warriors out. Their supporting cast has not been good enough all season, and their road record is astonishingly bad (11-30). But every time I say they’re done, I watch a game and fall back in love. Guard Stephen Curry is playing as well as I’ve ever seen him play. Guard Klay Thompson might not be as good defensively as he once was, but offensively he’s almost identical. If forward Andrew Wiggins comes back and some of their young guys get it together, I could talk myself into it. I don’t think they’ll win. But when Steph is hoisting up the Finals MVP trophy, I’m still going to say, “I told you.”
The Lakers are a long, long, long, shot. Behind forwards LeBron James and Anthony Davis, they have built a solid rotation, largely players they acquired on the trade deadline. If James and Davis can stay healthy, they could make some waves. The issue, however, is that James and Davis will not be healthy. One of them, if not both, will get hurt and miss time. They’ve only played 36 games together this season, so there is no evidence that they can stay healthy. Maybe I’ll be wrong and the Lakers will make the finals, but I have a hard time believing the Lakers will do much.
My pick is the Bucks. We’ll see what happens, but either way, it is shaping up to be a wildly entertaining playoffs.
