Defying doubts and questions as to whether they would have a viable season throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the NFL successfully managed to complete their regular season on Jan. 3.
The 2020 NFL playoffs would’ve been special even without COVID-19 because of the new collective bargaining agreement agreed upon by NFL owners and the NFL Players Association earlier this year. For the first time in NFL history, 14 teams will play in the postseason as opposed to the usual 12. Instead of the first and second seeds receiving bye weeks, only the first seed will have that luxury and the second seed will play the new seventh seed.
The #NFLPlayoffs are set! #SuperWildCardpic.twitter.com/M8oWEK6CgL
— NFL (@NFL) January 4, 2021
Predicting how the NFL playoffs will play out is difficult but in this upcoming postseason, there are some clear favorites, strong contenders and dark horses who might just be able to pull off a Super Bowl run.
AFC
Favorite: Kansas City Chiefs
It should not be surprising that the reigning Super Bowl champions are a favorite this year. The 14-2 Chiefs have hardly regressed from their 12-4 record last year; if anything, they may be even better. Coming into the season, the Chiefs were set to retain 20 of the 22 starters from last year’s Super Bowl roster. Running back Damien Williams later opted out of this season due to COVID-19 concerns for his mother, who had been diagnosed with cancer. But the Chiefs had a prepared replacement in the form of rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire — who the Chiefs are hoping will return from injury for the playoffs — and acquired veteran Le'Veon Bell in Week 6.
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After being signed to the largest contract extension in NFL history, MVP candidate quarterback Patrick Mahomes has somehow managed to improve this season, as seen with his 38-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio, the best mark of his career. At wide receiver, the Chiefs have Tyreek Hill, who is eighth in the league in receiving yards with 1,276 and second in touchdowns with 15. The team doesn’t falter at tight end, where they have Travis Kelce, who recorded 1,416 receiving yards this season, the second-most in the league. Kelce also recently became the first tight end to ever have five 1,000-yard seasons. In other words, this offense is loaded.
While it’s safe to say the Chiefs are stacked on offense, their defense is also full of Pro Bowl talent in the form of defensive tackle Chris Jones, safety Tyrann Mathieu and defensive end Frank Clark. This defense finished the season with 11th-fewest points allowed per game at 22.6. With talent all over the field and on both sides of the ball, it’s hard to believe any other team has a better shot at the Super Bowl than the Chiefs.
Contender: Buffalo Bills
Bills quarterback Josh Allen might just be the most improved player this season. One of the largest knocks on Allen his whole career has been his accuracy: with rookie and sophomore completion percentages of 52.8% and 58.8%, respectively, Allen is now completing 69.2% of his passes, an astonishing improvement. He recorded this completion percentage while passing for 4,544 yards, fifth-most in the league, to go along with 421 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. The Bills remained committed to Allen since drafting him seventh overall in 2018, and it has clearly paid off as he has led them to a record of 13-3 and their first AFC East title in 25 years. Star wide receiver Stefon Diggs has also been paying dividends after the Bills traded for him this offseason, finishing the year with a league-leading 1,535 receiving yards and 127 receptions. Diggs has cemented himself as one of the top receivers in the league.
On defense, the Bills are led by Pro Bowl cornerback Tre'Davious White and defensive tackle Ed Oliver. Since their Week 11 bye, the Bills’ defense ranks fifth-best in points allowed per game with 18.3 and is tied for fifth in takeaways with 10.
Boasting both a dynamic offense and a strong defense, the Bills are a well-balanced team, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see them make a deep push in the playoffs.
Contender: Pittsburgh Steelers
After going 11-0, the Steelers, led by an aging Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, were chasing dreams of being just the third team in the Super Bowl era to go undefeated in the regular season. These dreams were shattered, though, by consecutive losses to the Washington Football Team, Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. The Washington and Cincinnati losses were particularly concerning as those teams finished with a combined record of 11-20-1. In other words, not matchups that you’d expect a true Super Bowl contender to lose.
The Steelers bounced back with a victory against the Indianapolis Colts, another playoff team, before resting Rothlesberger in the last week of the season. Unlike years past, the Steelers have been lacking in their rushing game, finishing last in the league with an abysmal 84.4 rush yards per game. Yet they have made up for it with an abundance of receiving talent in TikTok star and wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster, sophomore wide receiver Diontae Johnson and rookie wide receiver Chase Claypool.
@juju Steelers MNF #fyp video credit : @chase
♬ Adderall (Corvette Corvette) - Popp Hunna
The true heart of this team, however, is the defense. Pittsburgh finished the season ranked third in both total yards and points allowed, holding opposing teams to an average of 305.8 yards per game and 19.5 points per game (ppg). With outside linebacker and Defensive Player of the Year contender T.J. Watt still bringing pressure and star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick shoring up the secondary, the Steelers are a scary defense to line up against.
Now that Smith-Schuster has said he will stop dancing on other teams’ logos before away games, anything is possible for the Steelers. But in all seriousness, if Pittsburgh can return to early season form and Roethlisberger can shake off the rust, they will be a formidable team to challenge.
Dark Horse: Baltimore Ravens
After a shocking first-round loss to the Tennessee Titans last year, the Ravens will have their chance for a rematch in the wild-card game on Jan. 10, this time as the underdog. Going into the 2020 season, there were high hopes for the Ravens’ offense with quarterback Lamar Jackson at the helm. But it was not the bounce back that fans or the team had hoped for from the reigning MVP this season. Through Week 11 of this season, Jackson’s quarterback rating (QBR) fell to 62.3 from his league-leading 82.3 QBR last year, and the Ravens suffered because of it. The team, which led the league in points per drive in 2019, regressed, and Baltimore found themselves at 6-5 in Week 12 after losing a game to the Steelers that Jackson missed due to COVID-19. One more loss, and the Ravens would have risked missing the playoffs.
Fortunately, Baltimore has gone undefeated since. In the past five weeks, Jackson is finally looking like his MVP self with a QBR of 87 in their past five victories. Jackson’s return to form has elevated the play of sophomore wide receiver Marquise Brown, who has averaged a touchdown per game in the past five weeks. The Ravens’ running game has similarly been incredible, with running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards combining for an average of 152 rushing yards per game since Week 12. As a team, the Ravens have averaged a whopping 270.7 rushing yards per game in the last three games.
Suddenly, it doesn't seem as if anyone can stop the Ravens’ run game. If Jackson can keep his current pace, it wouldn’t be too shocking to see them take down the Titans this Sunday on their way to a deep playoff run.
NFC
Favorite: Green Bay Packers
In the offseason, many expected the Packers to bring in more offensive weapons to help veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers. But in a shocking move during the 2020 NFL Draft, the Packers traded up in the first round to select quarterback Jordan Love. Immediately, rumors swirled about the Packers preparing to move on from Rodgers. The response from Rodgers, of course, was the MVP quality season that we witnessed this year. Rodgers has thrown for 4,299 yards and is boasting an absurd 48-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His career-high 48 passing touchdowns leads the league by a wide margin, boasting eight more than the nearest gunslinger.
Rodgers’ No. 1 target is wide receiver Davante Adams, who is one of the best, if not the best, in the game at his position. Adams is fifth in the league in receiving yards with 1,374 and first in receiving touchdowns with 18. As if these numbers weren’t impressive enough, Adams has done it all despite missing two games with a hamstring injury. Unfortunately, the Packers lost stud left tackle David Bakhtiari to an ACL injury on Dec. 31, but reserves Rick Wagner and Jon Runyan filled in admirably. In last week's victory against the Chicago Bears, the Packers’ line didn’t seem to miss a step.
The Green Bay defense is also full of talent, from third-year cornerback Jaire Alexander to outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith. Despite a rough start to the season — when the Packers were 26th in passer rating and 20th in points allowed though the first five weeks — the defense has come alive. Over the past three games, Green Bay has allowed an average of 15.3 ppg, the second-best mark in that time.
Overall, the Packers are a dangerous and complete team, with one of their only weaknesses being receiver depth. But seeing as Adams has been largely unguardable all season and Rodgers has the ability to elevate the play of whoever he is throwing to, the Packers remain the team to beat in the NFC this year.
Contender: New Orleans Saints
Following heartbreaking postseason losses in the past three postseasons — including the Minneapolis Miracle and a blown call that was so bad that the NFL created new rules in its aftermath — the Saints are no doubt hungry for a Lombardi Trophy. With rumors circulating that this may be quarterback Drew Brees’ final season and the projection that the Saints will be $95 million over the salary cap for next season, it seems that the Super Bowl window may be nearly shut for the Saints.
After being signed to a five-year, $100 million contract extension last year, star wide receiver Michael Thomas was plagued by injuries this season, missing nine games and scoring zero touchdowns. The injury bug also struck Brees, who suffered 11 broken ribs and a collapsed lung in Week 10. Brees, though, somehow managed to return only three weeks later. The return of Brees was also a great aid to running back Alvin Kamara, who scored a whopping six rushing touchdowns on Christmas against the Minnesota Vikings, tying the NFL single-game rushing touchdown record.
Long gone are the days of Brees needing to put up insane numbers to compensate for his team's lackluster defense. In fact, in Week 13 this season, the Saints’ defense was ranked the top defensive unit in the NFL, marking the first time this has ever happened under head coach Sean Payton. The Saints finished the regular season allowing only 21.1 ppg, placing them fifth in the NFL in that category. The trenches are held by defensive tackle David Onyemata and defensive end Cameron Jordan and at linebacker, All-Pro Demario Davis.
Brees seems to have shaken off his rib injury, throwing for 248.7 yards per game since his return. If Thomas is healthy enough for the playoffs, the Saints will be able to pair a potent offense with one of the best defenses in the league. Kamara was inactive in Week 17 with COVID-19, but the team is hoping that he will be able to return for their Sunday wild-card matchup against the Chicago Bears. Although questions may loom over the Saints next year, they are most certainly a strong playoff contender this season.
Contender: Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks made headlines this offseason when they traded significant draft capital to the New York Jets for disgruntled safety Jamal Adams. The hope was that the All-Pro could take this Seattle defense back to their glory days of the Legion of Boom. But Seattle’s defense got off to a rough start, and Adams missed four games with a groin injury. In fact, it was a historically bad start for the Seattle pass defense who, after eight games, were on pace to shatter the NFL record for most passing yards allowed in a single season. Thankfully for the Seahawks, the defense made notable improvements over the course of the season, and from weeks 10-16, they allowed only 203 passing yards per game, far less than the 362 yards they had been allowing earlier in the season.
Despite the defensive perseverance, the offense, led by quarterback Russell Wilson, seems to have had the opposite development. Wilson began the season on a tear, dealing out touchdown passes left and right with the help of monstrous second-year wide receiver DK Metcalf. In the first five games of the season, Wilson had thrown for 1,502 yards while boasting a 19-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The MVP conversation was dominated by Wilson’s incredible start.
Yet as time went on, Wilson slowed down dramatically. Wilson’s averages fell from 317.6 passing yards and 3.5 passing touchdowns per game in the first half of the season to 208.9 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game in the second half.
If the Seahawks get caught flat-footed, they could see an early exit this postseason. But if Wilson can capture that early season magic again, this team will be in prime position to make a deep playoff push.
Dark Horse: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In the long-standing battle between quarterback Tom Brady and time, the 44-year-old seems to be emerging victorious from this round yet again. Aiding Brady on offense is perhaps the strongest receiving corps in the league, consisting of wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. Brady was also joined by tight end Rob Gronkowski, who unretired to play with his former quarterback. With this offense around him, Brady hasn’t lost a step, finishing the season with 4,633 passing yards, third among all quarterbacks.
On defense, the Buccaneers started off strong but soon fell off. After a promising start, they have regressed in nearly every statistical category in the second half of the season. However, facing a Washington offense that has struggled this season will definitely make the job easier for Tampa Bay’s defensive unit. If the Buccaneers win, they may face the Packers in the next round, and while Green Bay is certainly a fearsome opponent, the Buccaneers handed the Packers their biggest loss all season back in Week 6, crushing them 38-10. If the Buccaneers can sort out their problems on defense, they have a shot at upsetting a lot of teams on their way to a Super Bowl.
