Hello, and welcome to another edition of The Beej Knows Best. This will be the last edition this semester, which I'm sure makes you equally if not more sad than me. At first, I was hoping to write something sentimental, something that would last the cold winter that many of us are most certainly going to have. Perhaps it would revolve around schoolwork, or family, or a hot button issue in the public news. As I grabbed my winter coat and headed for Thanksgiving, I was hoping to gain some clarity by the beginning of this week. And let me tell you, things are clearer than they've ever been.
We are going to talk about Johnny Football! Who else? Last year, I wrote that the Houston Texans should have pulled the trigger on Manziel. I've stood by the fact that I believe in his ability to become a star in this league. But I don't believe starting him is the right move, from a statistical or a locker room chemistry perspective.
Earlier this year, I said that I had taken a serious interest in the Browns this season. And so far, they haven't disappointed. The Browns need to revert their offensive strategy back to the pre-Josh Gordon days. As I watched the Browns on TV, I was happy to see Gordon, who looked nearly at full strength after his 12-week absence. The issue is that the offense has revolved too much around Gordon, and both the Falcons and the Bills were able to capitalize on that fact.
Looking at the numbers, Gordon has caught 15 balls this year on 29 targets, putting him at a catches-to-target percentage of 51.72. Looking at the entire NFL, the average is 63.97 percent. If we narrow our scope to the top 32 receivers, the percentage increases to 64.90. And finally, if we were to look at the top-10 wide receivers, an elite class that Gordon could fall into, then it again increases to 67.17. This means that Gordon is catching 12.24 percent less targets than the league, 13.17 percent less targets than the top-32 wide-outs and 15.45 percent less than the top 10. Not a great sign for your top playmaker.
The next logical thought is that Gordon is showing obvious rust from his time off. However, Gordon has only dropped one ball in his 29 targets, which yields a drop rate of 3.44 percent. The league average drop rate, which is calculated by dividing total drops by total targets, was 4.32 percent. Gordon's rate is better, but he's not a merely average wide receiver. Thus, it is fair to say his low catches-per-target percentage isn't a result of him dropping the ball.
The next step is to look at Gordon's per-game numbers. For this, I only looked at the top-10 wide receivers, because that is where Gordon should be, based on his production last season. These players averaged 6.63 receptions per game on 9.88 targets. Gordon has averaged 7.5 receptions per game on 14.5 targets. Although he's been catching 13.09 percent more than these other top wide receivers, he's done so on 46.84 percent more targets. That's a staggering amount, and something that the Falcons certainly adjusted for, and the Bills certainly prepared for. Quarterback Brian Hoyer has been essentially throwing the ball up there and hoping that Gordon can come down with it.
The Browns were sitting at 6-4 before Gordon came back, but their offense was still fairly anemic. I believe that their game plan shifted to giving their best playmaker the ball, which on paper seems logical. But this philosophy has caused Hoyer to throw the ball to Gordon in less than ideal situations. Since Gordon has been back, Hoyer has thrown five interceptions, doubling his total from the previous 11 games. Of those five, three were directed Gordon's way. Teams will continue to double-team Gordon, and if the Browns' game plan stays the same, it won't matter who plays quarterback.
Based on the numbers, it shows that Gordon's presence so far has changed the Browns' offensive game plan, and this change has been detrimental. Previously, their best wide receiver was Andrew Hawkins, who was only getting 8.18 targets per game, followed by Miles Austin at 6.08. Hoyer averages 32.91 pass attempts per game, so these two accounted for 24.86 and 18.48 percent of the passing attack. In Gordon's first game back, he was targeted on 16 of Hoyer's 40 passes, or a whopping 40 percent. Against the Bills, Hoyer threw 30 passes before being pulled, 12 of which were in Gordon's direction, once again totaling 40 percent. That's just too much action for one player, regardless of his supporting cast. Before changing to Manziel, Head Coach Mike Pettine and the Browns should go back to the basics. The ball will find Gordon if and when he gets open. Forcing the issue is not the solution.
From a chemistry standpoint, switching this late into the season to a rookie quarterback in Manziel would be hazardous at the least.
First, Hoyer is the respected veteran who won the position and played well for the first 10 games of the season. According to multiple reports, he is a locker room leader. He is also in the last year of his contract. If the Browns played Manziel, signaling that the team had given up on Hoyer, they couldn't possibly put Hoyer back on the field in the event that Manziel does have some rookie growing pains. They would also be indicating that they do not want to re-sign him in the offseason. If Manziel were to struggle immensely down the stretch, the Browns would have to go out and sign or potentially even draft a quarterback to compete at the position.
Keeping Manziel on the bench leaves more options open. If Hoyer succeeds and the Browns make it somewhat deep into the playoffs, then they can consider signing him to a large contract and potentially even trading Manziel. If Hoyer struggles, they can let him go in the offseason and move on to Manziel next season. By sticking with the incumbent, the player that got them to the hunt in the first place, the Browns are not only keeping their options open, but they also are protecting the locker room chemistry.
The problem in Cleveland thus far is not Brian Hoyer. I'm not saying that he is a franchise quarterback, nor am I saying that he has the ability to take the Browns to the playoffs this season. However, the Browns' offensive strategy since Josh Gordon's return has hamstrung Hoyer, and he has struggled as a result. The Browns have a small chance of making the playoffs this season. They shouldn't risk ruining their locker room chemistry or preemptively closing the book on Hoyer by replacing him with Manziel ...
– By Jayson Patel, Contributing Writer
Beej Knows Best: Lets Talk Johnny Football
Cleveland Browns backup quarterback Johnny Manziel sets himself before making a throw. According to writer Jayson Patel, the Browns should give Manziel Brian Hoyer's starting spot. Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
