As pro-Russian secessionist movements in Ukraine dominate global headlines, a number of other secessionist movements have been growing in the wealthy democracies of Europe and North America without outside provocation. The Crimean peninsula successfully seceded from Ukraine and promptly joined Russia in March. Now, more pro-Russian separatist groups have seized regional administrative buildings in Eastern Ukraine in the hopes of seceding as well with the possibility of being annexed by Russia like Crimea. Separatists in the Russia-adjacent region of Donetsk have declared the region "The Donetsk People's Republic," an independent state from Ukraine. This conflict is ongoing and it is yet to be seen what will come of the Eastern Ukraine secessionist movement. Meanwhile, in Western Europe and Canada, more civil secessionist movements are developing and growing in prominence.
There is a Scottish movement to secede from the United Kingdom. Scotland has been part of the United Kingdom since 1707, and for almost all of the past 300 years has maintained peaceful relations with the English to the south. The current separatists contend that the Scottish cultural identity is different enough from that of the rest of the United Kingdom to merit independence. A referendum is planned to take place on Sept. 18. The prospects of the secessionists winning the referendum seem slim because Scotland is economically dependent on the rest of the United Kingdom, receiving money from the central government in London. The British government has also announced that Scotland will not be able to continue using the British pound as currency if it secedes. Currently, there is no infrastructure for an independent Scottish monetary system, making secession a major economic risk. Despite the numerous negative consequences of secession, current polls show that 43 percent of Scots support independence.
Unlike Scotland, Catalonia, a north eastern region of Spain, has both cultural and economic interests in secession. Catalonia joined Spain in the early 18th century, just as Scotland did with the United Kingdom. Catalonia retains its own language, Catalan. The region, helmed by the economic center of Barcelona, contributes more money to the Spanish national government than it receives, giving Catalonians an economic incentive to secede from Spain that the Scottish do not have. Accordingly, current polls show that 56 percent of Catalonians support independence. The Spanish government is vehemently opposed to any attempt of Catalan secession.
Veneto, a region in northern Italy, has similar reasons for secession as Catalonia. For hundreds of years, Veneto was seat to the Venetian Empire, an extremely wealthy trading power on the Mediterranean. Like Catalonia, Veneto gives a far greater net contribution to the Italian central government than it receives. In a recent unofficial digital plebiscite regarding independence, 89 percent of voters opted for independence. While this vote held no legal significance, it demonstrates a strong secessionist sentiment. There are plans for an official regional vote in the near future.
Across the Atlantic in Canada, there is a prominent secessionist movement in the province of Quebec. Québécois secessionists, politically represented by the Parti Québécois (PQ), cite Quebec's distinct francophone culture as grounds for secession. Twice before, in 1980 and 1995, Quebec held referendums about independence. Both times the voters chose to remain part of Canada. The 1995 vote was particularity close, with 49.5 percent of voters favoring independence.
The PQ just lost the Québécois' regional parliamentary election in early April to the federalist Liberal Party. It is not likely that a secessionist vote will pass any time soon, but the PQ and secessionists are poised to remain important players in Québécois politics. All of these secessionist movements have risen to prominence in the wake of the Cold War, as globalization has swept across the world. A study by Jason Sorens titled "Globalization, Secession, and Autonomy," provides a link between the recent rise of secessionist movements in developed countries and globalization. Globalization promotes regional trade agreements, which encourages greater economic independence between countries. In turn, these secessionist regions no longer need to be tied to a larger state to remain economically functional.
In accordance with this paradoxical observation that the increased centripetal forces of globalization have increased the centrifugal desire for secession, all of the regional secessionist movements mentioned above continue to advocate remaining part of the international trade agreements that the states they are trying to secede from are part of. Secessionists in Catalonia, Veneto and Scotland all would like to remain part of the European Union's single economic market. The PQ would like to remain part of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) – a free trade agreement between Canada, the United States and Mexico – if they secede from Canada. The persistent economic downturn in the developed world since the 2007-2008 financial crisis has further increased secessionist sentiment. Secessionists think that their region can better provide for their economic recovery on its own than the central government has been able to do. This is particularly true in Catalonia and Veneto because the Spanish and Italian governments, respectively, have been unable to recover their economic welfare to pre-recession levels.
It is hard to assess whether these secessionist movements will be best for their lands in the long term. Regional political and trade agreements, including the European Union and NAFTA, have stated that any secessionist states that are currently part of member states will have to reapply to join in a lengthy process. While other states in the regional trade agreement may not care much about a new member, the states that secessionists would like to leave have pushed the organization to de-incentivize partition. The prospects of any of these regions seceding from their countries in the near-term future is relatively dim, particularly for Quebec and Scotland, but if the economic Eurozone crisis continues, the chance of Catalonia and Veneto seceding grows more likely. The future map of Europe may indeed come to look like the region's map in the Middle Ages.
– By Ben Perlmutter
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