AFC
Favorite: Kansas City Chiefs
It should not be surprising that the reigning Super Bowl champions are a favorite this year. The 14-2 Chiefs have hardly regressed from their 12-4 record last year; if anything, they may be even better. Coming into the season, the Chiefs were set to retain 20 of the 22 starters from last year’s Super Bowl roster. Running back Damien Williams later opted out of this season due to COVID-19 concerns for his mother, who had been diagnosed with cancer. But the Chiefs had a prepared replacement in the form of rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire — who the Chiefs are hoping will return from injury for the playoffs — and acquired veteran Le’Veon Bell in Week 6.
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After being signed to the largest contract extension in NFL history, MVP candidate quarterback Patrick Mahomes has somehow managed to improve this season, as seen with his 38-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio, the best mark of his career. At wide receiver, the Chiefs have Tyreek Hill, who is eighth in the league in receiving yards with 1,276 and second in touchdowns with 15. The team doesn’t falter at tight end, where they have Travis Kelce, who recorded 1,416 receiving yards this season, the second-most in the league. Kelce also recently became the first tight end to ever have five 1,000-yard seasons. In other words, this offense is loaded.
While it’s safe to say the Chiefs are stacked on offense, their defense is also full of Pro Bowl talent in the form of defensive tackle Chris Jones, safety Tyrann Mathieu and defensive end Frank Clark. This defense finished the season with 11th-fewest points allowed per game at 22.6. With talent all over the field and on both sides of the ball, it’s hard to believe any other team has a better shot at the Super Bowl than the Chiefs.
Contender: Buffalo Bills
Bills quarterback Josh Allen might just be the most improved player this season. One of the largest knocks on Allen his whole career has been his accuracy: with rookie and sophomore completion percentages of 52.8% and 58.8%, respectively, Allen is now completing 69.2% of his passes, an astonishing improvement. He recorded this completion percentage while passing for 4,544 yards, fifth-most in the league, to go along with 421 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. The Bills remained committed to Allen since drafting him seventh overall in 2018, and it has clearly paid off as he has led them to a record of 13-3 and their first AFC East title in 25 years. Star wide receiver Stefon Diggs has also been paying dividends after the Bills traded for him this offseason, finishing the year with a league-leading 1,535 receiving yards and 127 receptions. Diggs has cemented himself as one of the top receivers in the league.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen surveys the field in match against the then Washington Redskins in 2019. (Wikimedia Commons/All-Pro Reels)
On defense, the Bills are led by Pro Bowl cornerback Tre’Davious White and defensive tackle Ed Oliver. Since their Week 11 bye, the Bills’ defense ranks fifth-best in points allowed per game with 18.3 and is tied for fifth in takeaways with 10.
Boasting both a dynamic offense and a strong defense, the Bills are a well-balanced team, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see them make a deep push in the playoffs.
Contender: Pittsburgh Steelers
After going 11-0, the Steelers, led by an aging Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, were chasing dreams of being just the third team in the Super Bowl era to go undefeated in the regular season. These dreams were shattered, though, by consecutive losses to the Washington Football Team, Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. The Washington and Cincinnati losses were particularly concerning as those teams finished with a combined record of 11-20-1. In other words, not matchups that you’d expect a true Super Bowl contender to lose.
The Steelers bounced back with a victory against the Indianapolis Colts, another playoff team, before resting Rothlesberger in the last week of the season. Unlike years past, the Steelers have been lacking in their rushing game, finishing last in the league with an abysmal 84.4 rush yards per game. Yet they have made up for it with an abundance of receiving talent in TikTok star and wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster, sophomore wide receiver Diontae Johnson and rookie wide receiver Chase Claypool.
@juju Steelers MNF #fyp video credit : @chase
The true heart of this team, however, is the defense. Pittsburgh finished the season ranked third in both total yards and points allowed, holding opposing teams to an average of 305.8 yards per game and 19.5 points per game (ppg). With outside linebacker and Defensive Player of the Year contender T.J. Watt still bringing pressure and star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick shoring up the secondary, the Steelers are a scary defense to line up against.
Now that Smith-Schuster has said he will stop dancing on other teams’ logos before away games, anything is possible for the Steelers. But in all seriousness, if Pittsburgh can return to early season form and Roethlisberger can shake off the rust, they will be a formidable team to challenge.
Dark Horse: Baltimore Ravens
After a shocking first-round loss to the Tennessee Titans last year, the Ravens will have their chance for a rematch in the wild-card game on Jan. 10, this time as the underdog. Going into the 2020 season, there were high hopes for the Ravens’ offense with quarterback Lamar Jackson at the helm. But it was not the bounce back that fans or the team had hoped for from the reigning MVP this season. Through Week 11 of this season, Jackson’s quarterback rating (QBR) fell to 62.3 from his league-leading 82.3 QBR last year, and the Ravens suffered because of it. The team, which led the league in points per drive in 2019, regressed, and Baltimore found themselves at 6-5 in Week 12 after losing a game to the Steelers that Jackson missed due to COVID-19. One more loss, and the Ravens would have risked missing the playoffs.
Fortunately, Baltimore has gone undefeated since. In the past five weeks, Jackson is finally looking like his MVP self with a QBR of 87 in their past five victories. Jackson’s return to form has elevated the play of sophomore wide receiver Marquise Brown, who has averaged a touchdown per game in the past five weeks. The Ravens’ running game has similarly been incredible, with running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards combining for an average of 152 rushing yards per game since Week 12. As a team, the Ravens have averaged a whopping 270.7 rushing yards per game in the last three games.
Suddenly, it doesn’t seem as if anyone can stop the Ravens’ run game. If Jackson can keep his current pace, it wouldn’t be too shocking to see them take down the Titans this Sunday on their way to a deep playoff run.
